PSEI

PSEI October 19, 2016

PSEI continued its rally to close at 7,721.57, as it continue to climb back at 7,800 range. We can expect the index to inch a little higher to trade back at 7,800 if it can sustain the rally and break it's first resistance, failure to do so will prompt PSEI to trade sideways at 7,600-7,700 range.

PSEI rally can be attributed to China's expected GDP result of 6.7% which ease investors worry about the world 2nd largest economy (paired with increased inflation data last week), along with PRRD visits to china that gained a very optimistic view.

Moody's rating also added to PSEI's rally and the high chance of FED rate hike happening until December fueled its bullish trend.

The trend may continue tomorrow until Friday as investors are likely to cash out gain from the rally.


Side note: MACD just made it's golden cross, aroon indicator shows a change in trend, and net foreign volume shows net buying after two weeks of net selling.



Will update again on Friday on what to watch out next week.

Charts: Investagrams.com
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PSEI October 14, 2016

PSEI closed higher as investors bargain hunt when the index drops to near 7,300 yesterday.  

PSEI as of October 14, 2016 y-o-y chart with fib retracement

But would PSEI continue its rally next week?

Here are the things to watch out for this weekend that may fuel the PSEI to further extend it's rally next week:

1. China's higher inflation data.

As the worlds 2nd biggest economy the rise of inflation data for the first time in five years helped Asian stocks rebound from the slumps yesterday.

"Asian stocks and the dollar bounced on Friday, erasing some losses from the previous day, as stronger-than-expected Chinese inflation data eased some concerns about the health of the world’s second-biggest economy."

**In view of recent events specially the visit of PRRD to China along with 200 businessman, I would also like to add this in things that could affect the PSEI. A good feedback will likely boost the rally we have this week. (Updated 10/19/2016)

2. Yellen Speech

All ears on Yellen's speech at Boston today, looking for stronger clues for a rate hike this December.

3. Oil prices

Oil just extended its gain above $52 because of cut in US supply. Big factor for our energy sector which could fuel up the rally of PSEI this week.

4. US and Japan better earnings data

Investors love better earnings, it makes them feel safe to invest.

There are more things to watch over the weekend but these are my top things that a trader should be aware, if PSEI opens in green on Monday then we can expect to be trading back at 7,500 area.

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PSEI October 12, 2016

PSEI drops further yesterday to close at 7,312.18, further downward sentiment are pulling down the index and gaining momentum. So the question is would it close the gap last May?


PSEI 1 year chart on Fibonacci Retracement 


So will it close the gap and slide further down? Probably yes. If this breach 7,300 today then it may slide further to 7,100-7,300 range. Big factor of pulling PSEI down would be the World Stock Market movement, this includes the weak China data, the coming speech of Yellen this Saturday and even the death of King Bhumibol can fuel the downward momentum of PSEI. Many investors are already pulling out their stocks and on a wait-and-see mode few months ago, mainly due to the certainty of a FED rate hike, and now that a December rate hike is on the table fund managers and investors alike are already cashing out gains from PSEI previous rally.

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PSEI October 12, 2016

PSEI is apparently on a downtrend, mainly due to strong USD and the decline of all shares worldwide including the US Stock market nosedive. Biggest factor is the higher expectation of a FED rate hike this September, which is according to latest poll, is at 70% probability already. USD index is on its highest level for 7 months as investors put their money back on the safe haven and away from emerging markets like our PSEI.

PSEI should not go below 7,300 points and may go sideways below 7,500 range.

PSEI is still on a selling pressure and still on a bearish MACD cross. Investors are still waiting for the result of FED's policy meeting to get clues if December rate hike is certain.